I've got a theory on the Web 2.0 technology boom, and I brought a visual aid. Refer to the chart at left, and let's begin.
OK, right now the number of "Web 2.0" companies is growing like crazy. (See the top line, the thin one.) What's a Web 2.0 company? To keep it simple, let's say Web 2.0 products and services involve social-networks and user involvement on the web. MySpace is one, where the users are creating the online content-- personal web pages-- and connecting with one another.
Flickr is another. Users, like me, upload photos to share, and we label them for others on the site to find and enjoy. (Go here for an expanded definition of Web 2.0.)
These companies and their online "products" are (mostly) amazing, creative and very, very useful.
On my chart thick line is the number of people who understand these new tools and are using them. I'm not talking about being hip and in the know; and I'm not making a value-judgment. I'm talking about people who have chosen to invest the time to learn about and use tools like Flickr, RSS or del.icio.us.
After all, it takes time to integrate this stuff into your life, right? What if you enjoy Triathlons more than technology, like my brother Eric? He's not listening to podcasts, he's running his business...and training for the next race. He's no slouch when it comes to technology, but we all make choices about how to spend our time. Choosing the web over a Triathlon-- one isn't 'better' than the other.
My point is there are tens-of-millions of Americans like my brother, slowly integrating the new technology into their lives. It will take time.
OK, back to the graph. The two lines intersect, and that's good because with adoption we get profitability, which leads to more innovation and more creative, useful products. BUT before they intersect I see this...gulp...downturn. (The cross-hatched area.) I'm a startup veteran, and I helped burn-through venture capital and watched the business turn-out the lights; I've been there, it's heartbreaking. But here's my point about this downturn (and I hesitate to call it that:) It's going to be different this time.
That cross-hatched area on the very scientific graph up there? Not fallout or crash. Not YIKES but more...YOWZA! Why? The people. The people starting these companies are collaborative, open-source thinkers and this will help the consolidation (which will happen) to occur more gradually and with less fallout. These innovators are more patient, less enamored with wealth, more often self-funded and stable, and the VC's funding them are more prudent too. They will merge with one another and will survive.
I'm optimistic. I'm excited. I say YOWZA.
What do you say?
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